US President Donald Trump announced this week the major definitions of the three largest commercial partners in his country, leaving investors scrambling to place themselves for a global trade war.
Canada and Mexico face 25 % duties on its exports to the United States, with a 10 % decrease on Chinese goods. Canada has already responded with 25 % reprisals, compared to $ 155 billion in American goods.
Meanwhile, Trump stated that the European Union will be the next shooting, while looking at the UK as well.
Although Trump has repeatedly threatened the definitions of the campaign’s path, Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reed said in the Monday note that the market “was completely reduced by risks” and will now be in “severe shock.”
Among the expected effects in the short -term to the average is a slowdown in global economic growth, especially in countries with large manufacturing sectors, high oil prices, higher prices for consumers in the United States and higher American interest rates than the United States, with the strongest US dollar As a result.
Outside the United States and the other three economies that participate directly, the sectors are prepared all over the world to influence the definitions.
Here are some areas that are expected to be beaten:
Cars
It is expected that car companies – from brands for cars to vehicle parts makers – are among the worst affected by escalating commercial tensions because they are a major field of international imports in the United States
Germany VolkswagenFor example, it has the largest car factory in Mexico as it produces export vehicles to the American analysis by RBC Capital Markets that the company can see a 9 % reduction in its profits as a result of tariffs in the worst attendance scenario, while Stelantis – Who owns Chrysler and Jeep – also has major operations in Mexico, including the production of a random access memory, and watch 30 % of the profits.
The effects on shares were immediate on Monday, with European auto companies on the regional Stoxx 600 Index of 3.4 % decrease, and suppliers are part Valeu Forma also retracted the sector’s slowdown.
Chips companies
Chips and semiconductor equipment, starting with Taiwan TSMC To the Netherlands AsmlIt is prepared for the effect of customs tariffs given the global supply chains in the industry – including factories in Mexico and China – and because of the potential slowdown in demand.
Taiwan Manufacturing Company, semiconductors, the largest chip maker in the world, specializes in making semiconductor for other companies, such as American companies appleand Nafidiaand AMDand Qualcomm and Intel.
Meanwhile, ASML manufactures the UV -UV printing machines (EUV) used by many international chips to print complex designs on chips. ASML ships these tools to multiple countries, including the United States, Taiwan and South Korea.
“The last movements will not do much to calm the high tensions that struck the semiconductor sector,” said Susanna Striter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Companies like Nafidia Dependence on the production of chips from factories to use external sources abroad, such as China and Mexico – but many other parts needed to build artificial intelligence data centers can also be vulnerable to tariffs, given that they are imported. “
Consumer goods
For the American consumer, a group of home and entertainment goods can be set abroad to increase prices, from Furniture and electrical appliances for clothes, video devices, phones and play.
Elsewhere, there will be an impact on the products exported in the United States sent to countries like Canada that are defined-as well as consumer commodity companies around the world that send products across the United States borders.
One example is the giant of drinks DiagoAnd that was already struggling with the weak demand in North America.
Fintan Ryan, Consumer Park Research in GoodBody, told CNBC that the customs tariff was one of the largest challenges for the company this year as the United States represents about 45 % of the company’s operating profits.
About 70 % of its sales in the United States are imports, in the meantime, including Canadian whiskeys, Mexican, Scotch, Billis and Guinness from Ireland in the European Union. Diaageo is scheduled to report profits on Tuesday.
Chinese electronic prostitute
Chinese companies face the highest risk of customs tariffs and other changes to reach the American markets, according to the Morgan Stanley analysis. Among them, online shopping platforms associated with fame in China such as Temu, Shein and Aliexpress.
US officials claimed that the exemption allowed Chinese e -commerce companies to undermine their competitors and worry safety concerns due to “minimal documents and inspection”.
The United States treated more than 1.3 billion shipments in 2024, According to the data From the American Customs and Protection Agency.
Without exemption, low -cost products from online retailers in China will face duties, which may raise the end price of the elements and cause a decrease in demand.
Basic and industrial materials
Dan Burdman Weston, CEO of BRI Wealth Management, said to face the clouds from the weakest global view, is scheduled to face Dan Burdman Weston, CEO of BRI Wealth Management, that basic material companies-which explore, extract and process products including minerals, wood and glass Plastic, charcoal, and gemstones CNBC’s “Street Street” Europe.
The Stoxx 600 mining index in Europe was 1.5 % lower by Monday afternoon, while the industrial index, which includes machinery producers, decreased by 1.7 %.
It is expected that the economic impact will feel hard in Canada, as analysts at ScotiaBank said on Monday that the customs tariff versus the highest commercial partner and the nearest ally was “the worst possible scenario of Canada.”
Analysts added that its economy and productivity are weak, and the debts are high and trade diversification is low, as analysts classified the soft wood industry that already decreases in the country as being especially at risk.
Green energy
Renewable energy producers around the world can develop definitions, as China, Mexico and Canada have all the main rules for producing the machine parts used in solar energy, wind and other green technologies.
In a statement Sunday, the American Energy Association Caution for negative impact In the green energy industry, quoting increased costs of energy production due to the production of Canadian and Mexican machines.
On a wider scale, Mooringstar analyzes warned in December note that the customs tariff may be harmful to the transmission of energy.
“Since the customs tariff in the end, it is taxes that consumers pay, it may lead to high inflation rates and interest rates, in addition to a slower growth. If this happens, this will undermine the profitability of solar installations and winds, which depend on financing the long -term project and said “They have been affected by the high interest rates in recent years.”
Gunish Rao of CNBC, Michael Bloom, Annie Palmer, Wissam Merridith and Rayan Brown contributed to this story.
