The general view of the city of London Horizon, the financial district of the capital, in October.
SOPA photos | Lightrockket | Gety pictures
Global markets of new fluctuations this week after US President Donald Trump confirmed plans to impose a tariff on imports from three of the largest trade partners in America.
On Monday, Trump agreed to stop for 30 days on the 25 % customs tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, after the two countries agreed to take steps to inhibit opioid fentanel that crosses their borders to the United States.
However, there was no cessation of China, which faces an import tariff of 10 % – and later took revenge on tariffs of up to 15 % on American goods.
Beyond that, European economies are also at risk of Trump’s tariff system. The US President told the correspondents on Sunday that the customs tariff for the European Union “will definitely happen” – but he said that the deal “can be reached” with the United Kingdom, a nation in which American trade is more balanced.
“The UK is outside the line,” Trump told reporters. “But I am sure Starmer,” Trump told reporters.
Curtain He told reporters This week, he had discussed trade in talks with Trump, and would not choose aspects between the United States and the European Union, according to the Guardian newspaper.
Meanwhile, UK Minister of Finance Rachel Reeves insisted last month that Britain was “not part of the problem” when it comes to the trade deficit that Trump is looking to correct with the customs tariff policies.
The United States was the largest trading partner in the United Kingdom in the year until September 2024, according to Official dataIt represents more than 17 % of the total UK trade.
Depending on the numbers you look, the two countries either have a small trade Disability or surplus. What is important for Trump, although he – who hates it when the United States exports less to a country of its imports – is that the numbers are almost balanced.
The British economy is also struggling – with Reeves Saying last month She was “fighting every day to start” growth – many analysts told CNBC that the economy could get a batch of Trump’s trade war.
Services economics
Even if the United Kingdom is definitions, the impact may be more impatient than expected, “Irina Sordo-Nardela, an international business professor and strategy at Warwick Business College, told CNBC.
“In fact, the effects on the UK market will be relatively limited to industries such as hunting and mining,” she said. “The nature that focuses on the service of the British economy protects it greatly from the consequences of customs tariffs. The customs tariff is particularly harmful to industries with complex supply chains, as goods cross the borders several times as companies seek to convert inputs into final goods. It is not the case for the Kingdom market United, which mainly issues banking and consulting services to the United States
The five largest exports of commodities in the United Kingdom to America were cars, medicines and pharmaceutical products, mechanical energy generators, scientific tools and aircraft, with a total value of 25.6 billion pounds (31.8 billion dollars).
The value of those exports was dwarf, however, by those of the largest services exports, including financial and insurance services, which amounted to a total value of 109.6 billion pounds.
“In a unique position”
Neri Karra Sillaman of the University of Oxford University College of Business Administration said that avoiding customs tariffs is the perfect scenario because it can enhance the main industries of Britain.
“If the UK remains free from customs tariffs, it may be in a unique position to attract investment, talents and new commercial partnerships,” CNBC told CNBC on Tuesday.
“With the definitions that prompted companies to find more cost -effective centers, the UK can become a favorite gateway to companies looking to bypass restrictions,” she said. “Sectors such as luxury, fashion, pharmaceutical preparations and advanced manufacturing – where the UK is already outperform – can witness an flow of investment and trade opportunities.”
She added that the British sectors, including cars, space, and space, can also benefit from increased demand if American buyers look beyond suppliers who struck the customs tariff.
“We have seen these patterns before – every trade war has turned into a global economic balance, and this may be a moment for the United Kingdom to benefit from change, and to be an active player instead of passers -by,” CNBC told CNBC.
A new safe haven?
Alex King, a former FX merchant and founder of the Personal Financial platform Money generationAnd he agreed that Trump’s policies can provide Britain some economic relief.
“When the United States imposed for the first time a tariff on China, Chinese manufacturers directed many of their goods via Vietnam and Thailand to the United States to avoid definitions,” King said via e -mail. “If the UK avoids definitions, it will be in a position that can benefit from a similar direction from the European Union.”
The king also argued that British pound It can appear as a “major winner” in a possible trade war, noting that after Trump’s initial assurances last week, the pound rose against the euro, Canadian dollar, Australia and New Zealand currencies.
GBP/USD
This is a sign that global investors “may see that the United Kingdom is a potential safe haven.”
“Ultimately, the UK can be one of the few major economies that have a customs tariff-free arrival to both the United States and the European Union, making it-and the pounds-a possible winner.”
On Tuesday, the British pound has reduced some of its gains against the euro to circulate in a marginal way about 83.13 pence per euro. The pound is strengthened against the US dollar.
“The place to gain weight”
Dan Burdman Weston, CEO of BRI Wealth Management, said the United Kingdom has a “fighting opportunity” to avoid American definitions, making it an attractive market for investors.
“If Trump continues to definitions on other countries, this will be reasonable for more goods in the UK and this disturbs inflation,” he said. “It is also possible that the internal investment in the UK will be if the poor definitions increase and become a more permanent feature in the global trade scene.”
He pointed out that interest rates are likely to decrease in the United Kingdom more than the United States, which can provoke the re -classification of British companies as well as bond returns in the UK government, known as Gilts.
“When this is associated with the relative political stability of the United Kingdom and cheap assessments, the UK is the place to gain weight for 2025,” he said.
This means that the United Kingdom versus Dynamic has changed, according to Chris Metcal, the chief investment official of IBOSSEETEMEMENT.
“For foreign investors, since 2016, there have been reasons for choosing a country in the European Union through the United Kingdom, mainly because it is just a larger market,” CNBC told CNBC on Tuesday.
“Although Trump’s tariff policy can look chaotic and head, it is difficult to see a scenario as it reflects the path and imposes more customs tariffs on the United Kingdom instead of the European Union. This undoubtedly creates a positive background to attract American companies and invest in the United Kingdom, especially given the political chaos in France and Germany. “
